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SURPASS-CVOT

Study of Tirzepatide Compared with Dulaglutide on Major Cardiovascular Events in Participants with Type 2 Diabetes

Year of Publication: 2025

Authors: Stephen J. Nicholls, Imre Pavo, Deepak L. Bhatt, ..., for the SURPASS-CVOT Investigators

Journal: New England Journal of Medicine

Citation: N Engl J Med 2025;393:2409-20

Link: https://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2505928


Clinical Question

Is tirzepatide (a dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist) noninferior to dulaglutide (a GLP-1 receptor agonist) with respect to major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes and established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease?

Bottom Line

Tirzepatide was noninferior to dulaglutide for the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke (HR 0.92, p=0.003 for non-inferiority) but did not achieve superiority (p=0.09). Tirzepatide produced greater reductions in HbA1c, body weight, blood pressure, and triglycerides. All-cause mortality was lower with tirzepatide in secondary analysis.

Major Points

  • Active-comparator non-inferiority trial of 13,165 patients with T2DM and established ASCVD across 640 sites in 30 countries
  • Primary endpoint (CV death, MI, stroke): 12.2% tirzepatide vs 13.1% dulaglutide (HR 0.92, 95.3% CI 0.83-1.01, p=0.003 non-inferiority, p=0.09 superiority)
  • Non-inferiority margin of 1.05 was chosen to preserve ≥50% of dulaglutide's known efficacy vs placebo
  • Median follow-up 4.0 years with 99.0% complete primary endpoint assessment
  • All-cause mortality lower with tirzepatide: 8.6% vs 10.2% (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.75-0.94)
  • Non-CV death also lower: 3.0% vs 4.0% (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.63-0.91)
  • Greater metabolic improvements with tirzepatide: HbA1c -1.66 vs -0.88 percentage points; weight -11.6% vs -4.8%
  • No significant difference in individual stroke outcome (3.5% vs 3.8%, HR 0.91)
  • More gastrointestinal adverse events with tirzepatide (42.5% vs 35.9%)

Design

Study Type: Active-comparator-controlled, double-blind, randomized, non-inferiority trial

Randomization: 1

Blinding: Double-blind (sham dose-escalation for dulaglutide to maintain blinding); outcome adjudication by blinded independent committee

Enrollment Period: May 29, 2020 to June 27, 2022

Follow-up Duration: Median 4.0 years

Centers: 640

Countries: 30 countries across North America, South America, Europe, Asia-Pacific

Sample Size: 13165

Analysis: Modified intention-to-treat; Cox proportional-hazards models stratified by SGLT2 inhibitor use; non-inferiority margin 1.05 for upper limit of 95.3% CI; ANCOVA for continuous outcomes with multiple imputation; Fine-Gray model for competing risks; SAS 9.4+ and RStudio 4.4.2


Inclusion Criteria

  • Age ≥40 years
  • Type 2 diabetes with HbA1c 7.0-10.5% (53-91 mmol/mol)
  • BMI ≥25
  • Established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in at least one vascular territory

Exclusion Criteria

  • Any cardiovascular event within 60 days before screening
  • Use of GLP-1 receptor agonist or pramlintide in 3 months before screening
  • Planned treatment for diabetic retinopathy or macular edema
  • Chronic advanced heart failure
  • History of pancreatitis
  • Clinically significant gastric emptying abnormality or previous bariatric surgery
  • Active liver disease (excluding MASH)
  • eGFR <15 ml/min/1.73 m² or long-term dialysis
  • Family or personal history of MEN or medullary thyroid carcinoma

Arms

FieldTirzepatideControl
InterventionTirzepatide subcutaneous injection weekly, initiated at 2.5 mg and increased by 2.5 mg every 4 weeks to maximum of 15 mg or maximum tolerated dose. At 36 months, 72.7% were receiving 15 mg dose.Dulaglutide 1.5 mg subcutaneous injection weekly (fixed dose). Sham dose-escalation scheme used to maintain blinding.
DurationMedian 47.6 months exposure, 4.0 years follow-upMedian 47.7 months exposure, 4.0 years follow-up

Outcomes

OutcomeTypeControlInterventionHR / OR / RRP-value
Composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke (time to first event)Primary862/6579 (13.1%)801/6586 (12.2%)0.920.003 (non-inferiority); 0.09 (superiority)
Death from cardiovascular causesSecondary408/6579 (6.2%)367/6586 (5.6%)HR 0.89 (0.77-1.02)
Myocardial infarctionSecondary357/6579 (5.4%)311/6586 (4.7%)HR 0.86 (0.74-1.00)
StrokeSecondary249/6579 (3.8%)229/6586 (3.5%)HR 0.91 (0.76-1.09)
CV death, MI, stroke, or coronary revascularizationSecondary1217/6579 (18.5%)1089/6586 (16.5%)HR 0.88 (0.81-0.96)
CV death or hospitalization/urgent visit for heart failureSecondary557/6579 (8.5%)512/6586 (7.8%)HR 0.91 (0.81-1.03)
Death from any causeSecondary669/6579 (10.2%)566/6586 (8.6%)HR 0.84 (0.75-0.94)
Non-cardiovascular deathSecondary261/6579 (4.0%)199/6586 (3.0%)HR 0.75 (0.63-0.91)
Change in HbA1c at 36 months (percentage points)Secondary-0.88-1.66Difference -0.78 (-0.84 to -0.72)
Change in body weight at 36 months (%)Secondary-4.8%-11.6%Difference -6.8 (-7.1 to -6.5)
Change in systolic BP at 36 months (mm Hg)Secondary-4.1-6.2Difference -2.1 (-2.6 to -1.5)
Change in triglycerides at 24 months (%)Secondary-10.2%-24.2%Difference -15.6 (-16.9 to -14.3)
Change in eGFR at 36 months in high-risk CKD (ml/min/1.73 m²)Secondary-8.90-5.72Difference 3.17 (2.09-4.26)
Any adverse eventAdverse5894/6647 (88.7%)5956/6647 (89.6%)
Serious adverse eventAdverse2121/6647 (31.9%)2117/6647 (31.8%)
AE leading to drug discontinuationAdverse672/6647 (10.1%)878/6647 (13.2%)
Severe hypoglycemiaAdverse48/6647 (0.7%)49/6647 (0.7%)
Gastrointestinal adverse eventsAdverse2387/6647 (35.9%)2827/6647 (42.5%)
NauseaAdverse1486/6647 (22.4%)1667/6647 (25.1%)
DiarrheaAdverse1267/6647 (19.1%)1651/6647 (24.8%)
Adjudicated pancreatitisAdverse39/6647 (0.6%)41/6647 (0.6%)
Acute kidney injuryAdverse178/6647 (2.7%)226/6647 (3.4%)
Medullary thyroid cancerAdverse02 (<0.1%)

Subgroup Analysis

No significant heterogeneity across subgroups defined by cardiovascular and diabetes-related clinical characteristics. Results appeared consistent across prespecified subgroups.


Criticisms

  • No placebo arm - active comparator design limits ability to determine absolute CV benefit of tirzepatide
  • Did not achieve superiority over dulaglutide (p=0.09) despite greater metabolic improvements
  • Limited diversity: >80% White participants, only 29% women - not fully representative of global patient population
  • Only evaluated secondary prevention population with established ASCVD - not applicable to primary prevention
  • Only one GLP-1 agonist comparator (dulaglutide) evaluated - cannot extrapolate to other GLP-1 agents like semaglutide
  • Imbalance in SGLT2 inhibitor addition after randomization (33.8% vs 41.1% at 36 months) may have affected results
  • Higher drug discontinuation rate with tirzepatide (21.6% vs 19.8%)
  • Limited to patients with type 2 diabetes - placebo-controlled trial in obesity without diabetes is ongoing (SURMOUNT-MMO)
  • Mechanism of potential mortality benefit (particularly non-CV mortality) is uncertain and requires further investigation

Funding

Eli Lilly (designed trial in collaboration with academic executive committee; oversaw conduct; collected data; performed initial statistical analysis; database subsequently transferred to Monash University for validation)

Based on: SURPASS-CVOT (New England Journal of Medicine, 2025)

Authors: Stephen J. Nicholls, Imre Pavo, Deepak L. Bhatt, ..., for the SURPASS-CVOT Investigators

Citation: N Engl J Med 2025;393:2409-20

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